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Egypt’s descent into chaos- Sober Look
Egypt’s cities are erupting into protests once again. Commentators have been focused on the nation’s politics and the government’s attempts to suppress certain freedoms. After all that’s what usually...
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Why has the US broad money supply flat-lined in 2013? – Sober Look
The US money indicators have been showing something odd in the last few months. While the monetary base (M0) has been rising sharply due to increasing bank reserves (the liability side of the Fed’s...
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ABS meets EBay – the disintermediation of consumer finance- Sober Look
Can unsecured consumer lending be disintermediated? At least one fairly successful company thinks it can – as long as you get large groups of people willing to borrow and investors willing to lend. The...
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US government’s bearish crude oil forecast- Sober Look
In spite of the Fed’s ongoing monetary expansion, the US Department of Energy is projecting a moderate decline in crude prices over the next couple of years. Here is the key component of their...
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Corporate CDS tightens to multi-year lows; bonds lag- Sober Look
US corporate CDS are tightening to new lows, as the Fed continues to pump liquidity into the market. The JPMorgan CDX indices which measure spreads for the “on-the-run” CDX (and include rolling into...
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Declining dry powder of LBO funds- Sober Look
The private equity industry’s capacity for leveraged buyouts continues to decline. Here are some reasons for this trend: Monetizations of portfolio companies have been talking longer in recent years....
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Canadian households may face more deleveraging – Sober Look
Some recent data out of Canada points to a slowdown in growth of consumer indebtedness. According to RBC, the non-mortgage consumer debt has grown at the slowest rate in 20 years. Global News: –...
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Is China’s anti-corruption campaign responsible for global commodities...
Commodities came under severe pressure yesterday, in part driven by some negative news out of China, the world’s largest single consumer of natural resources. CRB Commodity Index (Bloomberg) The...
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What’s causing sharp declines in crude oil prices? Visit ND lately? – Sober Look
Staying with the theme of bearish sentiment in commodity markets, crude oil came under severe pressure recently. Based on today’s data, US crude inventory actually declined last week, surprising some...
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Japan rewarded for launching the currency war – Sober Look
Japan’s “Merchandise Trade” exports surprised to the upside this morning. All of a sudden Japan’s export activity is picking up steam. Source: Econoday Furthermore, Japan just overtook China as the...
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